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Year 10 Maths - 10 Probability

Unions and Intersections

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Theory

A Venn diagram sorts every outcome into regions, so probabilities can be read straight from it. This Year 10 maths page covers the intersection \(A\cap B\), the union \(A\cup B\) and the complement \(A'\), finding the overlap from totals, the addition rule, unknowns in regions, three-set diagrams, two-way tables and probabilities given a condition.

The rectangle is the universal set \(\xi\) (the whole sample space). Each circle is an event or set, a collection of distinct objects. \(n(A)\) is the number of elements in \(A\).

\(A\cap B\), the intersection, is "\(A\) and \(B\)": the overlap. \(A\cup B\), the union, is "\(A\) or \(B\) or both": everything inside either circle. \(A'\) (also \(\overline{A}\) or \(A^c\)), the complement, is everything not in \(A\).

Combinations describe single regions: \(A\cap B'\) is "\(A\) only", \(A'\cap B'\) is "neither", and \((A\cup B)'\) is the same region as \(A'\cap B'\). "Exactly one" means \(A\) only or \(B\) only. "At least one" means \(A\cup B\).

Events are mutually exclusive when they cannot happen together, so the circles do not overlap and \(A\cap B\) is empty. A probability "given" a condition uses only the region named in the condition as the total.

The four regions of a two-set Venn diagramTwo overlapping circles A and B inside a rectangle. The region in A only is A intersect B complement, the shaded overlap is A intersect B, the region in B only is A complement intersect B, and outside both circles is A complement intersect B complement. ξ A B A ∩ B′ A ∩ B A′ ∩ B A′ ∩ B′
\(A\cap B\) is "A and B" (the overlap). \(A\cup B\) is "A or B or both": every region inside a circle. \(A'\) is everything outside \(A\).
A three-set Venn diagram filled from the centreThree overlapping circles Music, Art and Drama. Centre (all three) 3. Music and Art only 5, Music and Drama only 3, Art and Drama only 2. Music only 9, Art only 7, Drama only 6. Outside all circles 5. ξ Music Art Drama 9 7 6 5 3 2 3 5
Fill a three-set diagram from the centre outwards: all three first, then each pair minus the centre, then each "only" region (Example 4).

The addition rule stops the overlap being counted twice:

\[n(A\cup B)=n(A)+n(B)-n(A\cap B)\]
\[P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)\]
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
In wordsNotationRegions
\(A\) and \(B\)\(A\cap B\)the overlap
\(A\) or \(B\) (or both)\(A\cup B\)all three regions inside the circles
\(A\) only\(A\cap B'\)\(n(A)-n(A\cap B)\)
neither\(A'\cap B'=(A\cup B)'\)total \(-\ n(A\cup B)\)
\(A\) or not \(B\)\(A\cup B'\)everything except \(B\) only
\(B\) given \(A\)\(P(B\mid A)\)\(\dfrac{n(A\cap B)}{n(A)}\)
Three sets. \(n(A\cup B\cup C)\) \(=n(A)+n(B)+n(C)\) \(-\,n(A\cap B)-n(A\cap C)-n(B\cap C)\) \(+\,n(A\cap B\cap C)\). Use it to find a missing centre value, then fill the diagram from the centre out. Check that the eight regions add to the total.
Venn diagrams and two-way tables. The four regions of a two-set diagram are the four inner cells of a two-way table: \(A\cap B\), \(A\cap B'\), \(A'\cap B\) and \(A'\cap B'\). You can convert either way.
Given in a two-way table. "Given" picks out one row or one column, and its total becomes the denominator. If \(35\) of \(80\) students catch a bus and \(21\) of those \(35\) are in Year 10, then \(P(\text{Year 10} \mid \text{bus}) = \dfrac{21}{35} = \dfrac{3}{5}\).

How to solve a Venn diagram problem

  1. Draw the rectangle and one circle for each event.
  2. Fill the overlap first. If it is not given, find it: overlap \(=n(A)+n(B)-n(A\cup B)\), where \(n(A\cup B)\) is the total minus "neither".
  3. Fill the "only" regions by subtracting the overlap from each circle total, then the outside region.
  4. Check that all the regions add to the total (or to \(1\) for probabilities).
  5. Read the probability: the count in the required regions over the total. For "given that", divide by the count in the given region only.

Other question types

  1. Unknowns in regions: add every region, set the sum equal to the total and solve (Example 3). With probabilities the sum is \(1\), and a quadratic may need a negative solution rejected.
  2. Described in words: "French only is twice both" means let both \(=b\), French only \(=2b\).
  3. Explain a mistake: if \(P(A)+P(B)\gt 1\), the events must overlap, and adding them counts the overlap twice.
  4. Checking independence: compare \(P(B\mid A)\) with \(P(B)\). If they are equal, knowing \(A\) does not change the chance of \(B\).
Example 1 — From totals to regions
Of \(60\) students, \(32\) play basketball (\(B\)), \(25\) play soccer (\(S\)) and \(9\) play neither. A student is chosen at random. Find:
(i) \(P(\text{exactly one sport})\)
(ii) the probability that a basketball player also plays soccer.
Solution

Students in at least one circle: \(60-9=51\). Adding \(32+25=57\) counts the overlap twice, so the overlap is \(57-51=6\).

\(B \text{ only}\)\(=\)\(32-6=26\)
\(S \text{ only}\)\(=\)\(25-6=19\)

(i) Exactly one sport means \(B\) only or \(S\) only.

\(P\)\(=\)\(\dfrac{26+19}{60}=\boldsymbol{\dfrac{3}{4}}\)

(ii) Only the \(32\) basketball players count, and \(6\) of them play soccer.

\(P(S\mid B)\)\(=\)\(\dfrac{6}{32}=\boldsymbol{\dfrac{3}{16}}\)
Example 2 — Set notation
\(\xi=\{1, 2, 3, \ldots, 20\}\). \(A\) is the set of multiples of \(3\) and \(B\) is the set of factors of \(18\). Find:
(i) \(n(A\cup B)\)
(ii) \(P(A'\cap B)\)
(iii) \(P\big((A\cup B)'\big)\)
Solution

List the sets: \(A=\{3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18\}\), \(B=\{1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 18\}\), so \(A\cap B=\{3, 6, 9, 18\}\).

\(n(A\cup B)\)\(=\)\(n(A)+n(B)-n(A\cap B)\)
\(\)\(=\)\(6+6-4=\boldsymbol{8}\)

(ii) \(A'\cap B\) is in \(B\) but not in \(A\): \(\{1, 2\}\). So \(P(A'\cap B)=\dfrac{2}{20}=\boldsymbol{\dfrac{1}{10}}\).

(iii) \((A\cup B)'\) is outside both circles: \(20-8=12\) numbers. So the probability is \(\dfrac{12}{20}=\boldsymbol{\dfrac{3}{5}}\).

n(A∪B)=n(A)+n(B)−n(A∩B)
Example 3 — Probabilities and algebra

(i) \(P(A)=0.5\), \(P(B)=0.35\) and \(P(A\cap B)=0.15\). Find \(P(A\cup B)\), \(P(\text{neither})\) and \(P(A\cap B')\).
(ii) A Venn diagram of \(50\) people has regions \(A\) only \(=3x\), both \(=x+2\), \(B\) only \(=2x-1\) and neither \(=x\). Find \(x\) and \(P(A\mid B)\).
Solution

(i) Use the addition rule, then the complement.

\(P(A\cup B)\)\(=\)\(0.5+0.35-0.15=\boldsymbol{0.7}\)
\(P(\text{neither})\)\(=\)\(1-0.7=\boldsymbol{0.3}\)
\(P(A\cap B')\)\(=\)\(0.5-0.15=\boldsymbol{0.35}\)

(ii) The four regions add to \(50\).

\(3x+(x+2)+(2x-1)+x\)\(=\)\(50\)
\(7x+1\)\(=\)\(50\)
\(x\)\(=\)\(\boldsymbol{7}\)

The regions are \(21\), \(9\), \(13\) and \(7\). Given \(B\), only the \(9+13=22\) people in \(B\) count: \(P(A\mid B)=\boldsymbol{\dfrac{9}{22}}\).

Example 4 — Three sets
Of \(40\) students, \(20\) study music, \(17\) art and \(14\) drama. \(8\) study music and art, \(6\) music and drama, \(5\) art and drama, and \(3\) study all three (the pairs include these \(3\)).
(i) How many study none?
(ii) Find \(P(\text{exactly two})\).
(iii) A drama student is chosen. Find the probability they also study art.
Solution

Start at the centre with \(3\). Pairs only: \(8-3=5\), \(6-3=3\), \(5-3=2\).

\(\text{music only}\)\(=\)\(20-5-3-3=9\)
\(\text{art only}\)\(=\)\(17-5-2-3=7\)
\(\text{drama only}\)\(=\)\(14-3-2-3=6\)

(i) Inside the circles: \(9+7+6+5+3+2+3=35\), so \(\boldsymbol{5}\) study none.

(ii) Exactly two: \(5+3+2=10\), so \(P=\dfrac{10}{40}=\boldsymbol{\dfrac{1}{4}}\).

(iii) Drama has \(14\) students. Those also in art: \(2+3=5\). So \(P=\boldsymbol{\dfrac{5}{14}}\).

Common pitfalls

Circle totals include the overlap. If \(30\) play tennis and \(12\) play both, then tennis only is \(18\). Writing \(30\) in the "only" region counts the \(12\) twice.
"Or" includes both. \(A\cup B\) contains the overlap. "Exactly one" does not.
Do not forget the outside. People in neither group are still in the total. Check that every region, including the outside, adds to the total.
Use the right total for "given". \(P(A\mid B)\) divides by \(n(B)\), not by the whole group.
Pairs in three-set problems include the centre. "\(8\) study music and art" usually counts those who study all three. Subtract the centre before writing the pair-only region.

Frequently asked questions

What does the intersection of two sets mean?

The intersection, \(A\cap B\), is the set of elements in both \(A\) and \(B\). On a Venn diagram it is the overlap of the two circles.

What is the difference between union and intersection?

The union, \(A\cup B\), contains everything in \(A\) or \(B\) or both: all of both circles. The intersection contains only what is in both: the overlap.

How do you find the number in both groups?

Add the two group totals and subtract the number in at least one group, which is the total minus those in neither. The overlap was counted twice in the sum, so the difference is the overlap.

What does A complement mean?

\(A'\) is everything in the universal set that is not in \(A\). Its probability is \(1-P(A)\).

How do you find a probability from a Venn diagram given a condition?

Use only the region described by the condition as the total. For \(P(B\mid A)\), divide the number in the overlap by the number in \(A\).