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Year 10 Maths - 10A Statistics

Collecting and Using Data

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Theory

Every statistical investigation starts with a question and a plan for collecting data. This Year 10A maths page revises how to pose a question and a hypothesis, classify data as numerical or categorical, choose between a census and a sample, use random, systematic and stratified sampling, and estimate for a population from a sample. It revises Year 7–9 work that the rest of the Year 10 statistics topic builds on.

A variable is anything recorded about each member of a group. A numerical variable has number values: discrete if counted (number of texts sent) and continuous if measured (time, mass). A categorical variable has labels: nominal if the categories have no order (eye colour) and ordinal if they can be ranked (very, somewhat, not at all). Postcodes and jersey numbers are labels, so they are categorical.

The population is the whole group being studied. A census collects data from every member. A sample collects data from part of the population, chosen to represent all of it. The sample size is the number in the sample.

A representative sample is like the whole population. A biased sample leans one way, usually because it leaves out a whole sub-group, such as asking about gym membership outside a gym. A self-selected sample, such as an online poll, is made up of people who chose to answer, so people with strong views are over-represented. A huge number of replies does not fix bias.

Different samples from the same population give slightly different results, even with the same method. Larger random samples vary less, so their estimates are more reliable.

A statistical investigation follows a cycle: pose a question, plan what data to collect and from whom, collect the data, display and analyse it, then answer the question. A hypothesis is a statement, not a question, that the data can show to be true or false, such as “Year 10 students who sleep more get higher marks”.

Four sampling methodsFour grids of 25 people, with the sampled people in red. Simple random: 5 people scattered by chance. Systematic: every 5th person in the list. Stratified: 2 chosen at random from each row (each group). Self-selected: a bunch of volunteers together in one corner. simple random any 5, by chance systematic every 5th stratified 2 per row, by chance self-selected volunteers
Each grid shows \(25\) people with the sample in red. Only the self-selected sample leaves the choice to the people themselves.
A biased sample taken at one placeA dashed oval holds the whole population as dots: most are navy (people who do not ride) and a cluster of red dots (riders) sits in one corner. A gold circle marks the sample, taken outside a bike shop, which captures almost only the red riders. sample: outside the bike shop population: everyone in the city
A survey at a place linked to the question only reaches one sub-group. Here almost everyone in the sample rides, so the estimate comes out far too high.
Sampling methodHow the sample is chosenWatch out for
simple randomevery member has the same chance (names drawn, random numbers)needs a full list of the population
systematicevery \(k\)th member of a list, from a random starta pattern in the list
stratifieda random sample from each group, in proportion to its sizegroup sizes must be known
self-selectedpeople choose to take part (phone-in, online poll)usually biased: only keen people reply
\[\text{estimate} = \text{sample fraction} \times \text{population}\]
\[\text{sample fraction} = \dfrac{\text{number with the feature}}{\text{sample size}}\]
estimate=sample proportion×population
\[\text{systematic interval } k = \dfrac{\text{population size}}{\text{sample size}}\]
\[\begin{aligned}&\text{number from a group}\\ &\quad= \dfrac{\text{sample size}}{\text{population size}} \times \text{group size}\end{aligned}\]
Systematic and stratified. To choose \(40\) names from a list of \(1200\), take every \(30\)th name from a random start between \(1\) and \(30\). For a stratified sample, give each group the same fraction of its members, so the sample has the same make-up as the population.
Two samples. Two random samples from the same population usually give slightly different estimates. Combining them gives a larger sample and a more reliable estimate.
Sample mean and median. A random sample’s mean and median estimate the population’s mean and median. For skewed data, or data with an outlier, the median gives the better estimate of a typical value. For a total, use the mean: \(\text{total} \approx \text{sample mean} \times \text{population size}\).
Census or sample? Use a census when the population is small and easy to reach, or when every answer is needed. Use a sample when the population is large, costly to reach, or when testing destroys the item.

How to plan a statistical investigation

  1. Pose the question and, if you can, a hypothesis to test.
  2. Choose the variables to record and classify each one: numerical (discrete or continuous) or categorical (nominal or ordinal).
  3. Name the population. Decide on a census or a sample.
  4. Choose a fair sampling method (random, systematic or stratified) and a sample size.
  5. Collect, display and analyse the data, then answer the question and say how reliable the answer is.

How to classify a variable

  1. Are the values numbers that behave like numbers? If yes, numerical; if not, categorical.
  2. Numerical: counted is discrete, measured is continuous.
  3. Categorical: a natural order is ordinal, no order is nominal.
Example 1 — An investigation and its variables
Leo wants to investigate the question: “Do students who live further from school take longer to get there?” For each student in his sample he will record the distance from home to school (in km), the way they travel (walk, bike, bus or car) and the number of times they were late last term.
(i) Write a hypothesis Leo could test.
(ii) Classify each of the three variables.
Solution

(i) A hypothesis is a statement, not a question, that the data can show to be true or false. For example: “Students who live further from school take longer to travel there.” To test it, Leo should also record each student's travel time.

(ii) Distance: measured, so numerical, continuous.

Way of travel: labels, so categorical, nominal.

Times late: counted, so numerical, discrete.

The way of travel has no natural order: walking is not “more” than catching the bus.

Example 2 — A stratified sample
A sports club has \(500\) members: \(200\) juniors, \(225\) adults and \(75\) seniors. The committee wants a stratified sample of \(60\) members, in proportion to the size of each group.
(i) How many should be chosen from each group?
(ii) Why is this better than choosing \(20\) from each group?
Solution

(i) Find what fraction of the club the sample is, then take that fraction of each group.

\(\text{fraction}\)\(=\)\(\dfrac{60}{500} = 0.12\)
\(\text{juniors}\)\(=\)\(0.12 \times 200 = \mathbf{24}\)
\(\text{adults}\)\(=\)\(0.12 \times 225 = \mathbf{27}\)
\(\text{seniors}\)\(=\)\(0.12 \times 75 = \mathbf{9}\)

Check: \(24 + 27 + 9 = 60\). Within each group the members are then chosen at random.

(ii) The groups are different sizes. Choosing \(20\) from each would give the \(75\) seniors as much say as the \(225\) adults, so seniors would be over-represented and adults under-represented.

Example 3 — A systematic sample
A bakery makes \(3600\) loaves a day. Each day it checks a systematic sample of \(48\) loaves.
(i) What is the sampling interval?
(ii) The first loaf chosen is the \(23\)rd made that day. Which loaves are the \(2\)nd and \(3\)rd in the sample, and which is the last?
(iii) Why should the starting loaf be chosen at random?
Solution
\(\text{(i) interval}\)\(=\)\(\dfrac{3600}{48} = \mathbf{75}\)

(ii) Add the interval each time.

\(2\text{nd}\)\(:\)\(23 + 75 = \mathbf{98}\text{th}\)
\(3\text{rd}\)\(:\)\(98 + 75 = \mathbf{173}\text{rd}\)
\(48\text{th}\)\(:\)\(23 + 47 \times 75\)
\(\)\(=\)\(\mathbf{3548}\text{th}\)

The last loaf is \(47\) intervals after the first, not \(48\).

(iii) If the bakery always started at the same place, for example the first loaf of each batch, the sample might always land on loaves made at one point in the process. A random start gives every loaf the same chance of being checked.

Example 4 — Estimating from a sample
A town has \(9000\) households. A random sample of \(120\) households finds that \(42\) own a dog.
(i) Estimate the number of households in the town that own a dog.
(ii) A second random sample of \(120\) finds \(36\) with a dog. Give the new estimate and explain why the two estimates differ.
(iii) Combine the samples for a better estimate.
Solution
\(\text{(i)}\ \dfrac{42}{120} \times 9000\)\(=\)\(\mathbf{3150}\)
\(\text{(ii)}\ \dfrac{36}{120} \times 9000\)\(=\)\(\mathbf{2700}\)

Each random sample contains different households, so the results vary from sample to sample. Neither estimate is wrong.

(iii) Combine: \(42 + 36 = 78\) dogs in \(120 + 120 = 240\) households.

\(\dfrac{78}{240} \times 9000\)\(=\)\(\mathbf{2925}\)

The combined sample of \(240\) is larger, so its estimate is more reliable. It is still an estimate, not an exact count.

Common pitfalls

A big sample can still be biased. Sample size and sample method are different things. Only a fair method fixes bias.
Random within one group is not random. Choosing at random from Year \(9\) only is still a Year \(9\) sample.
“Biased” is only half an answer. Say which way the result leans, too high or too low, and why.
A sample gives an estimate, not an exact count. Another random sample would give a slightly different answer.
Looking like a number is not enough. If averaging the values means nothing, as with postcodes, the variable is categorical.

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between a census and a sample?

A census collects data from every member of the population. A sample collects data from only part of it, chosen to represent the whole.

What makes a sample biased?

A sample is biased when some part of the population has little or no chance of being chosen, or when people choose themselves, so the results lean one way.

What are the four main sampling methods?

Simple random (everyone has an equal chance), systematic (every kth member of a list), stratified (a random share from each group) and self-selected (people choose to take part, which is usually biased).

How do you estimate a population number from a sample?

Find the fraction of the sample with the feature and multiply by the population size. If \(60\) of \(250\) households have solar panels, then about \(\dfrac{60}{250} \times 12\,500 = 3000\) of \(12\,500\) households do.

What is the difference between a question and a hypothesis?

A question asks what is true, such as “Do taller students have longer arm spans?”. A hypothesis states what you expect, such as “Taller students have longer arm spans”, so the data can support it or show it is false.